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Sunday, July 23, 2006

Has Maria Stopped the Bleeding?

In a recent post here , I talked about Senator Maria Cantwell's declining poll numbers in her race for re-election. At that time, the numbers being discussed were from the Rasmussen poll that showed Cantwell to be within the margin of error against republican (Mini-Slade) Mike McGavick. Well it seems that there is another set of numbers that Goldy over at Horsesass.org (and, I'm sure the Cantwell campaign as well) likes better. Apparently the latest Elway numbers show Cantwell with a significantly higher, 14% lead at 47% to 33%. Here's the thing, even Goldy points out that these numbers reflect the same decline over time as the Rasmussen poll. From February to June, Cantwell's lead has dropped some 8%:

Feb 2006
Definite Cantwell: 31
Inclined Cantwell: 24
Undecided: 20
Inclined McGavick: 14
Definite McGavick: 11

Jun 2006
Definite Cantwell: 34
Inclined Cantwell: 13
Undecided: 19
Inclined McGavick: 14
Definite McGavick: 19


Of course, Goldy puts the most positive spin on the numbers that he can; "Yes, McGavick's "definite" support has grown faster than Cantwell's, but then starting from a meager 11 percent he had a helluva lot more upside." and this "And of course, let's put this all in context. McGavick has been running a paid media campaign 'unanswered' for the past six months, while Cantwell has been strategically sitting on a $6 million plus war chest." But, seriously, look at those numbers and ask yourself, how does an incumbent U.S. Senator with all of the built in media that entails, combined with such high profile Democrats as Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Barrack Obama, and even Russ Feingold coming to the state to campaign for her drop so much to a relatively unknown candidate as Mini-Slade?

Why it's those damned Progressives, of course! Or, as Goldy puts it, "What I see is Cantwell showing some weakness with her weakest supporters...".??? Here is what the Rasmussen poll discovered, "Cantwell attracts slightly more support from Democrats (82%) than McGavick does from Republicans (80%), but 8% of Democrats now say they would vote for another candidate altogether given a Cantwell-McGavick match-up..." Well I don't know about you but I can't wait for the July numbers. With Mark Wilson moving into the Cantwell camp as her 'Progressive Outreach Guy' and with the her recent vote for the Levin Amendment on troop deployment from Iraq (eventually at a date to be witheld), will the Progressives now settle into the "Inclined Cantwell" column or will they move on to Hong Tran in the September Primary?

Stay tuned.......

2 comments:

Tahoma Activist said...

Hey Chad, I've been hoping to set up some kind of debate between Cantwell and Tran or Cantwell, McGavick and Dixon, but our Prez seems to think that Cantwell would never agree.

Seems to me that she should be doing anything it takes to get folks out and saying her name. Maybe I'm just crazy, but I think a debate could actually help her.

David Brookbank said...

Of course Democrat Senator Maria Cantwell would run away from a debate with Hong Tran. How could Cantwell stand before a Democrat constituency and defend her votes and positions? She voted for the war in Iraq; voted for every continuing resolution to fund the war; voted to create the Patriot Act in 2001 and to reauthorize it on March 2, 2006; voted to pass the Central American Free Trade Agreement in summer 2005; and voted to stop the filibuster of extreme right-wing Judge Alito tin January 30, 2005 allowing him to go on to become a Supreme Court Justice.

Worse than Cantwell's predictable cowardice in standing toe-to-toe with Hong Tran is the disgraceful behavior of the state Democratic Party and its efforts to obstruct both discussion of Cantwell's true views and its efforts to exclude Tran from access to the party's resources including resource booths, equal time, and precinct voter lists. One must ask: where are the Lisa Brown's and other Washington State Democratic Party leaders and why are they not speaking out publicly in support of Tran. At the bare minimum they should be openly and publicly criticizing Cantwell. Why not? Cowardice. Lack of truely progressive positions when the rubber meets the road on issues which truely differentiate those how stand for real Democratic values and those who only mouth them.

Vote Hong Tran and tell the country's two-party ruling class that the game is up and that voters will no longer give their votes away to candidates who talk one line but vote--like Cantwell--another.